long term bets - George "mac" Tsilfidis

It's time to let you all in on my bread and butter. As much success as I achieve on a week to week basis, it is nothing in comparison to where I make my real money. That's in long term bets. Besides the fact that I can clearly see how each week is shaping up, I can also pinpoint from as early as week 6-10 who will win their respective conference and/or the Super Bowl.  The same applies to hockey.

*I will use $100 as an average bet, and $50 as a half bet just so we have a number to use as an example. (You can bet as much as you want, and as little as you want).

Long Term Bets
Full Bet = $100 (Strong Bet, and usually teams that are a lock to be in the playoffs)
Half Bet = $50 (A level of uncertainty if the team makes the playoffs but great value for half a bet)

*I suggest you line shop for the best odds, as it is your money, and you want the best value for your dollar.

NFL FOOTBALL
(Picks Made on November 15th 2007, and all lines are based on the best available lines found at the moment of the picks being suggested.)

Super Bowl winners
Indianapolis Colts Pays 7:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
San Diego Chargers Pays 25:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Denver Broncos Pays 100:1 = Lay Half Bet ($50)
Dallas Cowboys Pays 6:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
New York Giants Pays 45:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Chicago Bears Pays 80:1 = Lay Half Bet ($50)
Washington Redskins Pays 85:1 = Lay Half Bet ($50)

We put $550 in action here. Our 2 Sure shot bets (Indy and Dallas) pay $600 and $700 respectively (Small Profit). Our 3 longshot bets (Chicago, Washington and Denver) pay $4000, $4250 and $5000 respectively (Big Profit). We should be hoping and expecting one of our middle bets to come through here (San Diego and New York Giants) and those pay $2500 and $4500.

AFC Winner
Indianapolis Colts Pays 3.5:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
San Diego Chargers Pays 13:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Denver Broncos Pays 50:1 = Lay Half Bet ($50)

We put $250 in action here. Our sure shot bet (Indy) pays $350. Our Longshot bet (Denver) pays $2500. We should hope and expect are middle bet to come through here (San Diego) and they pay $1300.

NFC Winner
Dallas pays 10:11 on your dollar here, and is not worth betting here.
New York Giants Pays 10:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Chicago Bears Pays 20:1 = Lay Half Bet ($50)
Washington Redskins Pays 25:1 = Lay Half Bet ($50)

We put $200 in action here. Our Longshot bets (Chicago and Washington) pay $1000 and $1250 respectively. We should hope and expect are middle bet to come through here (New York Giants) and they pay $1000.

Let me tell you something here, I know people our wondering where New England factors into this equation here. They are paying 1.33:1 on the dollar to win this thing outright and 1.25:1 on the dollar to win the AFC. That is absolutely terrible odds, and they are still getting pounded by the betting public. I remember all the noise the public made about Indy when they were 13-0, and we all know how that turned out that year. The SMART bet here is the one I put up to you in plain sight, should you choose to bet New England, you'd better hope they and only they win, so you can win just 25%/33% profit on your bet. I'd rather take this handful of teams.

NHL HOCKEY
(Picks Made on October 28th 2007, and all lines are based on the best available lines found at the moment of the picks being suggested.)

Stanley Cup Winner
Detroit Red Wings Pays 8:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Anaheim Ducks Pays 10:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
San Jose Sharks Pays 14:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
New York Rangers Pays 14.5:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Pittsburgh Penguins Pays 15:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Carolina Hurricanes Pays 20:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)

We put $600 in action here. Detroit pays $800, Anaheim pays $1000, San Jose Pays $1400, New York pays $1450, Pittsburgh pays $1500, and Carolina pays $2000. All 6 are confident bets, and our top pick, still will lead you to profit.

Eastern Conference Champion
Pittsburgh Penguins Pays 5.5:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
New York Rangers Pays 7:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Carolina Hurricanes Pays 9:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)

We put $300 in action here. New York pays $700, Pittsburgh pays $550, and Carolina pays $900. All 3 are confident bets, and our top pick will still lead to profit, while the other 2 will more than double your profit, and in Carolina’s case, it will triple your profit.

Western Conference Champion
Detroit Red Wings Pays 4:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
Anaheim Ducks Pays 4.5:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)
San Jose Sharks Pays 6:1 = Lay Full Bet ($100)

We put $300 in action here. Detroit pays $400, Anaheim pays $450, and San Jose pays $600. All 3 are confident bets, and our top pick will still lead to profit.

Let me tell you something here, I know people our wondering where Ottawa factors into this equation here. The odds are simply not there for us to bet them. I would rather take these 6 teams and have 1 of them win it, and still lead ourselves to profit, then bet Ottawa and hope that they win it, or we have no winnings at all. The SMART bet here is the one I put up to you in plain sight, should you choose to bet Ottawa, you'd better hope they and only they win. I'd rather take this handful of teams